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Consumer Confidence flatlines in August at 27.8%

Fewer feeling practical…good news for the Back-to-School season?

Two in five “worse off” financially compared to Aug-09

lmart tops Women’s Apparel…Kohl’s a close second

Target, Sam’s Club, Costco among stores shopped recently for Groceries

90 Day Outlook: UP from Jul-10, Aug-09, Aug-07, DOWN from Aug-07

The BIG Ticket: Autos, Computers, Jewelry improve from Aug-09

What’s Hot? Back-to-School shopping…is LeBron James heating up?

Fresh Economic, Retail & Consumer Insights for Shopper Understanding Edited and Produced by BIGresearch®
Providing Unique Insights Each Month from the Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey.

August 2010 
(Respondents Surveyed 8/3 - 8/10/10)

SPECIAL EDITION: VIDEO BRIEFING

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This special "video" edition includes a video briefing which recaps the key consumer insights for the month of August.

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The oil spill in the Gulf has finally been plugged, but without any concrete evidence of an economic “recovery” (you know, like a falling unemployment rate or a robust housing market), consumer confidence flatlines in August…this month, 27.8% say they are very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, even with July’s reading (27.9%), though remaining several points below Aug-09 (31.1%). Back in pre-recession Aug-07, confidence stood relatively strong at 43.9%.

Though cleanup efforts in the Gulf continue, overall, consumers are feeling a bit more optimistic about political and national security issues…in August, fewer than one in five (19.5%) say they continue to worry, down from 21.4% in July and 22.6% in Aug-09.

It may be a hit-or-miss Back-to-School season for some retailers, as consumers send mixed signals when it comes to the economy and spending…while confidence failed to improve in August [retailers lose], fewer consumers are feeling practical [retailers benefit]. While nearly half of consumers (44.8%) still say they'll remain practical and realistic when spending, this figure has lowered 4+ points from last month (49.1%) and declined from Aug-09 as well (48.2%).

Students headed back to school may have an easier time this year convincing penny-pinching parents that they need a new netbook, e-reader, or mobile device…more than half (53.5%) still say they’re focused on necessities when shopping, but this percentage has lowered from July (58.0%) and Aug-09 (55.9%).

 

 

While confidence and the U.S. unemployment rate (remaining at 9.5%) both failed to improve over the past 30 days, consumers are feeling a bit brighter about outlook for the job market…in August, fewer than one in three (28.9%) reports there will be “more” layoffs over the next six months, down two points from July (30.8%). More than half (53.1%) feels that layoff levels will remain the “same,” up slightly from 52.2% last month, while about one in five (18.0%) hopes for “fewer,” rising a point from a month ago (17.0%).

Those concerned with becoming laid off remains stable at 3.9%, the same figure posted in June and July. The current reading remains quite an improvement over Aug-09 (7.8%).

With half (49.6%) of consumers declaring they feel that there is too much month left at the end of their paychecks “all” or “most” of the time, it should come as no surprise that paying down debt (32.8%) and decreasing overall spending (31.2%) remain the top two financial plans in August. Nearly one quarter plans to increase savings (24.3%) over the next three months, while more than one in five (21.8%) is focused on paying with cash more often.

Can talks of recovery really begin when 40.6% feel “worse off” financially compared to a year ago? (And – let’s face it – 2009 wasn’t a great year)…just over one in ten says they are better off, while 45.2% proclaim they are the same, financially speaking.

And, one final personal finance stat: more than two in five (43.5%) disagree or strongly disagree that they are saving enough to meet future needs. One-quarter (26.9%) feels they have enough money banked.

While national average pump prices have increased slightly compared to a year ago (source: AAA), consumers still seem to have eased up on the brake when it comes to spending…compared to a year ago, fewer are delaying a major purchase, reducing dining out, scaling back on vacation/travel, and spending less on groceries or apparel.  That said, nearly seven in ten (68.1%) consumers overall say gas prices are still impacting other purchases:


 

 

Bring on the leopard print! Consumers may feel like they don’t have much money in the bank, but they aren’t letting that affect a good sense of style…this month, 16.9% report that newest fashion trends and styles are important to them, rising from the 13.0% recorded in Aug-09 and the highest reading since Oct-08 (18.5%). The majority (50.1%) still says fashion is less important than value and comfort, while one-third (33.0%) prefers a traditional, conservative look.

Designer offerings at affordable price points are likely keeping Kohl’s buoyed in Women’s Clothing…in August, the department store is only a few points behind big discounter Walmart, the store shopped most often for this category. The complete top 5: 1. Walmart (12.5%), 2. Kohl’s (10.0%), 3. JC Penney (6.3%), 4. Macy’s (5.6%), 5. Target (2.8%).

Walmart’s lead is more substantial in the Men’s section…with 16.2% shopping there most often, the big discounter is ahead of Kohl’s (9.9%), JC Penney (8.2%), Macy’s (5.2%), and Target (3.0%) in this category.

It appears that low prices lure parents into Walmart and Target for Children’s Clothing…the discounters lead this category with 14.6% and 5.0% shopping there most often, respectively. Other likely Back-to-School apparel hotspots? Kohl’s (4.8%), JC Penney (3.0%), and Old Navy (1.8%), which round out the top 5.

Walmart appeared to have the lead laced up in Shoes, but Payless is making strides...the big discounter is tops with 11.9% shopping there most often in August, while the discount specialty follows by just half a point (11.4%). Kohl’s (5.3%), DSW (3.6%), and JC Penney (3.1%) continue to trail.

Best Buy continues as the best bet in Electronics…more than a third (34.9%) head to the big box most often, while one in five (20.6%) shops at Walmart. Amazon.com (3.0%), Target (2.8%), and Sears (2.0%) follow not-so-closely behind.

Big box Dick’s, though, bats second to Walmart over in Sporting Goods…13.9% shop the big discounter most often, while 12.5% shop Dick’s. Following in the minor league are Sports Authority (4.9%), Big 5 (3.1%), and Academy (3.1%).

Home Depot (29.8%) and Lowe’s (26.2%) continue to hammer the competition in Home Improvement...Walmart is third here with 6.1% shopping there most often, while Menards (4.1%) and ACE Hardware (2.9%) follow.

While the majority (56.7%) of consumers shop traditional grocery store format for their foodstuffs, national presence (and EDLP, of course) keep Walmart at #1…overall, nearly one in five (18.6%) shops the big discounter most often for Groceries, while Kroger (7.0%), Publix (4.2%), Safeway (2.6%), and Shoprite (2.5%) round out the top 5. Divide consumers by census region, and you’ll see evidence of regional power players:

With varying advertised specials and convenience to home, work, or wherever, it makes sense that shoppers stray from the Grocery store they shop most often, doesn’t it? In the past 90 days, more than half (51.2%) admits to stopping by Walmart, while one in five (20.3%) have browsed the foodstuffs at Target. Sam’s Club (16.6%), Kroger (16.2%), Costco (14.3%), and ALDI (12.4%) have also been frequented.

Price (74.5%) is most likely to dictate where consumers shop for Groceries, though location (71.1%), selection (57.3%), quality (47.9%), and fresh produce (32.0%) are other key factors. Interestingly, reasons to shop can also vary by region of the country. Northeastern shoppers tend to value double coupons and fuel/gas rewards more than average, while those in the Midwest and South place higher value on one-stop shopping convenience and 24/7 availability. About one in ten (9.1%) shoppers out West head to a particular Grocery store for its organic/whole foods department.

Overall, more than three in five (62.7%) regularly or occasionally purchase Organic products...produce (53.6%) is most likely to be found in these shoppers’ carts, but dairy products (26.5%), breads (26.3%), cereals (24.9%), and juices (24.4%) are also popular. More than one in ten shop green at Walmart (11.6%) most often, followed by Whole Foods (6.5%), Kroger (5.4%), Trader Joe’s (5.3%), and Publix (3.6%).

Walmart continues to clean up in Health & Beauty Care…30.7% shop most often at the big discounter for soaps, shampoos, and cosmetics. Druggists CVS (8.6%) and Walgreens (8.5%) follow, while Target (6.9%) and Rite Aid (3.2%) complete the top 5.

When it comes to curing Prescription-medicated colds, though, consumers most often turn to druggists…Walgreens (16.8%) and CVS (16.4%) continue to lead this category, while Walmart (11.2%), Rite Aid (6.0%), and Target (2.5%) round out the top 5.
 

 

Those planning to spend the dwindling days of summer at the pool or on a road trip will likely invest in this aisle in the coming weeks: Snack Food products…when it comes to satisfying the sweet – or salty – tooth, more than one in three (37.1%) will check out a grocery store most often, while 27.1% purchase these products at discounters. 

Specifically, one in five (21.0%) heads Walmart most often, followed distantly by Kroger (4.7%), Publix (3.0%), Target (2.0%), Costco (1.9%), and Meijer (also 1.9%).  Split the genders and you’ll find that women are more likely to have a store preference than the men…fewer than one in five (17.5%) of the fairer gender claims to have “no preference” for their Snack Food destination, while more than a quarter (28.4%) men say the same, indicating that these fellows may be basing more of their purchasing on impulse and not necessarily on store loyalty.

When it comes to filling up the cart, shoppers rely on essential “C” food group (cereals, [ice] cream, chips, candy, and cookies) most frequently…breakfast cereal tops this list with 48.5% buying at least 2-3 times a month.  Ice cream/frozen yogurt (39.0%), potato chips (38.3%), candy (35.0%), cookies (34.7%), corn/tortilla chips (33.3%), and crackers (31.3%) follow.  Diet/low fat bars, energy/power bars, and toaster pastries are purchased with the least frequency.

Perhaps there’s room for merchandising improvement within this aisle…while seven out of ten (69.9%) agree that the Snacks in their store are arranged in an easy to shop manner, nearly half (46.5%) report that they regularly or occasionally have trouble finding the Snack Foods they want to buy.  One-quarter (24.7%) of these shoppers indicates it’s because they can’t find the right product form, 19.4% complain of stock outs, 19.1% have trouble locating the types of products they need, 17.5% are unable to find the correct brand, while 15.1% say the store doesn’t carry the exact item they want to buy.

While the average consumer spends about $18 per month to satiate between-meal cravings, those earning under $50,000 tend to spend a little less ($16.88) than their $50,000+ counterparts ($20.05).

 

 

Lessening focus on practicality and needs over wants when spending appear to be having a positive impact on the 90 Day Outlook compared to July, according to the BIGresearch® Diffusion Index (those who say they’ll spend less subtracted from those who will spend more). The Outlook improves from Aug-09 and Aug-08 as well, though compared to pre-recession Aug-07, all categories remain DOWN:

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook
(Aug-10 compared to Jul-10, Aug-09, and Aug-08)

Are we off to a better start this holiday season than in 2009? Six month purchase intentions continue to track ahead of Aug-09 for BIG ticket items like autos, computers, furniture, home appliances, jewelry/watch, TVs, DVD/VCR, and vacation travel:

 

 

Much to the relief of many parents, Back-to-School shopping means the kids are headed back to class soon, making this spending "season" what’s hot for August…Netflix, Angelina Jolie, and cupcakes prove popular as well. Women of all ages are eager to see Eat Pray Love, while those 35+ are also tuning in for Hot in Cleveland.  What’s not hot in Cleveland [or anywhere else]? LeBron James…76.5% say the Miami transplant isn't a slam dunk, heating up from the 64.8% who said the same back in June.

 


Check out BIGresearch's latest book, RETAIL COMMUNITIES - A Must-Read for all Marketers! For the first time in this book, Dr. Don Schultz and Dr. Martin Block of the Medill School at Northwestern have combined eight years of BIGresearch® consumer data - over 250,000 individual responses - to develop new consumer segments with both in-store and out-of-store views. RETAIL COMMUNITIES and the approach it takes helps you understand how to identify, interact and even create retail communities beneficial for consumers and retailers.
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